Ever since Nassim Taleb wrote his book, “The Black Swan” the world has been aware of the need to consider low probability but high impact events. This has proved true yet again in the nuclear industry with the Fukushima disaster – a supposedly extremely low probability event and as is now becoming clear with very serious consequences.
The water industry also needs to think carefully about low probability, high impact events. The lessons from Fukushima and the Gulf of Mexico BP oil disaster are clear – it is vital to prepare for the worst. In both cases much could have been done to alleviate the impact if thought had been given in advance about what to do if these low probability events occur. Now belatedly BP and the oil industry are investing in emergency devices to cap a blow out.
With events like cryptosporidium contamination the water industry has already given much though to its emergency plans. But as a report by UKWIR has made clear much more needs to be done. Not only will this make the water industry safer it will also reduce costs as investment and effort is targeted where it makes a difference.
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